John's Weather Blog

Posted on August 16, 2023 - 7:49 PM

Appears the disturbances have changed paths somewhat from previous models....

Hoping this current forecast sticks... time will tell though.

NOAA still showing the areas of interest with possible development over the next 48 hours... 30% chance of cyclone development. 

Posted on August 15, 2023 - 7:30 PM

Two disturbances to keep an eye on.....

As of August 15, 2023, we are seeing the disturbances shown at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Also, at the Southwest Florida Water Management District page, we see some models they have run.... 

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

Lastly, we have Tropical Tidbits showing what the American GFS models are showing... needless to say, August 27th could be eventful for us here in Southwest Florida.... 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2023081518&fh=174

I am really thinking that the month of September is going to be a very wet month for us here since July and August were nearly droughts. 

Praying that we are not in the path again this year!